Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

That’s what people say about picking stocks, and they could say the same thing about picking a quarterback.

With Peyton Manning fresh on the market, NFL teams must decide if he is the choice for them. Several teams have expressed interest, including the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets. No matter where he lands, Manning will either be as good, just as good, or not as good as he was with the Indianapolis Colts.

No one knows. Yet teams must make decisions, and the case of Jeremy Lin, who rose from obscurity to NBA stardom, and then leveled off, shows how hard it is to know who will make your investment pay off.

Today is a big day in my school. We learn who has been accepted for the Class of 2016.

Our admissions office works hard on making the choices. Candidates go through interviews and submit grades. Even the parents must go through an interview. Coaches are invited to give opinions.

Despite all this, you can bet there will be mistakes. Someone will be overrated, some will be overlooked.

Years ago the Dallas Cowboys used a computer to help them make their draft picks. Maybe everyone does that now; I don’t know.
Whatever method you use, the process of trying to pick the right candidate is baffling schools, businesses and sports teams this very moment. With the NFL draft coming up, you’ll soon be hearing stories about past draft busts.

Do you have any tests to judge the worthiness of a candidate? I’d love to hear your thoughts.
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